TradingWaves | Elliot Waves Analysis

Thu 18-04-2019

Hi everyone, hope you are all ok.

USDJPY

USDJPY has been and still is moving sideways, although it appears to have completed Wave i with an internal Wave 5 completing just above its previous Wave 3.

Wave ii correction should now turn lower towards the lower trend line (light-blue) for its completion.

Whic would mean around a %50 retrace of Wave i on a move back towards the Head & Shoulder Neckline (yellow).

There is a lot of attention on this Head & Shoulder formation and once it breaks through, if this count is correct it will be a long run for Wave ii of (iii) of [iii] upwards.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

Weekly

USDCAD

USDCAD; I have changed the current 1 hour count for an extended correction for Wave 2 (blue).

It has shown a further drop on correction of Wave 2 which completed just below the %76 Fib levels and then raised again to what could finally be the start of Wave 3 up.

I have been expecting Wave (iii) to start gaining momentum and cross the highest of previous Wave (i) and maybe this is the initial move and the prices start raising further up impulsively.

Wave (iii) will be confirmed when it crosses the highest of Wave (i) at 1.3450 and carries the price higher.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

USDCHF

USDCHF has finally reached, and crossed the upper trend confirming Wave [iii] started (best pictured on the Daily Chart).

I can still not distinguish 5 clear Waves that follow the Elliot terms for Wave (i) but nevertheless the move has proved to be the start of Wave [iii] and has picked up momentum to break out of the long term triangle shown on the Daily chart.

Although after this move I would expect a correction to take place for Wave (ii) to retrace %38 to %50, and this would lead to make a Heads & Shoulder pattern (best pictured on the 4Hour Chart).

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

EURUSD

EURUSD broke through the lower trend line (red) and developed 4 waves so far; so it is one wave short of completing Wave (i) of Wave 3(blue) to the downside.

The next support level at 1.1213 seems like a good target for this initial Wave to complete.

Wave (ii) would then take place to retrace back, possibly %50 towards the 1.1270 resistance areas.

Once Wave (ii) is completed we should see the impulsive waves to the downside to continue to the downside and the possibility of a good opportunity for a low-risk entry.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

EURCHF

EURCHF has extended Wave v today until 1.1380 to complete Wave (i) at 1.1420 area.

Next, Wave (ii) should carry the price lower towards support levels, possibly to the lowest of previous Wave iv (1.1322 - at the %38 retracement), although the next big area of support after which would be at the %50 retracement area is 1.1291.

Note how Wave (ii) correction would create a Cup & Handle pattern for Wave (iii) to take the price extensively higher on the break out to the upside.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

EURGBP

EURGBP is been moving in a corrective manner for a while on Wave ii and could have been completed at the %76 retracement of Wave i.

Note: There is potential for an extended Wave (ii) as an alternative count and the daily chart also shows an alternative count for a larger Wave [ii] to extend further.

As for the current count; If correct, Wave 3 should continue the waves down, once Wave ii completes, taking the price below the lowest of Wave 1 at 0.8500.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

Weekly

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is been moving sideways undecisevely to what might be Wave (ii) correction and now moving slowly to what should be Wave 3 of iii downwards.

Note: if the price crosses higher than the highest of Wave (i) it would trigger the alternative count of a Wave ii to be still in play.

Also, the Daily Chart shows an alternative count for an Extended Wave [c] correction to complete Wave 2(red) at the %50 retracement level (1.35128 area).

As per current count, Wave iii will be confirmed when/if the price crosses the lowest of Wave (i) at the 1.3000 level area.

60Mins

4Hours

Daily

AUDUSD

Daily & 4Hour Charts:

AUDUSD 4Hour Chart is showing the price raising from the neckline of a clear Head & Shoulders pattern which is suggesting Wave (iii) could be finally making its way up.

Still not out of the woods yet, so further moves lower than this neckline would trigger the alternative count for an extended Wave [ii] going towards the %76 levels of support, although it is still possible an extended Wave [v] or even a further extended Wave 5, with not much resistance levels to stop the move down (best seen in the 4Hour and Daily charts) .

Hourly Chart:

Is playing a very awkward and hard to follow series of waves but so far they meet the Elliot Wave principle so...

Next, Wave iii should continue the remaining of its 5 internal waves up, possibly to the next resistance level around the 0.7200 area.

From there, Wave 4 should do another correction in price before Wave 5 takes the price higher to complete Wave iii.

60Mins