Tue 02-04-2019
Hi everyone, hope you are all ok and started the week well.
USDJPY
USDJPY has shown a very small correction on Wave iv so far.
(notice that I have swapped the labels for smaller degree counts; this is due to the fact that the raise is meant to be greater. And has no implications as to the current count direction)
Once Wave iv is completed Wave v should follow the impulsive waves through the resistance levels to complete Wave (i).
The target for Wave (i) can be set to the latest biggest resistance level at 112.00 area.
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
Weekly
USDCAD
USDCAD correction of Wave (ii) completed at the %76 Fib levels.
Wave (iii) up has shown impulsive waves up but will only be confirmed when it crosses the highest of Wave (i) at 1.3450 and carries the price higher.
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
USDCHF
USDCHF broke out of the triangle to the upside and stopped at the first resistance at 0.9995.
Since then, today it has moved sideways and shown hardly any price action.
If the price carries on upwards in the form of 5 waves it will indicate that Wave c of Wave (c) of Wave [ii] has been already completed and this is the start of the series of waves for Wave [iii].
If the price drops lower again towards the lower trend (blue), the current count would still be valid for an extended Wave c.
Regardless of the starting point for the raise, on the long term, the price is bound to raise impulsively for Wave [iii] .
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
EURUSD
EURUSD has extended Wave (v) to the 1.1180 area, which is the biggest last area of support for a while.
Which suggest that:
If this is the final bottom for Wave (v) it will complete Wave 1 (blue) and Wave 2 should raise the price in three waves towards the yellow trend (%50Fib retracement of Wave 1).
If price crosses this support level there is a free fall for the next support areas at 1.1176 and 1.1120 areas.
So that could trigger the alternative count shown with interrogation marks as:
Wave 1 and Wave 2(blue) completed and Wave 3 underway to the way down.
As the current count stands, Wave 2 should raise in a corrective manner and, once completed Wave 3 (of Wave iii) should show impulsive waves to the downside again and provide a low-risk entry opportunity in its initial internal confirmation waves.
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
EURCHF
EURCHF has invalidated the previous count and I have modified the long term count for an extended Wave C(red) to towards the %76Fib retracement, as it is now crossing the %62Fib level.
Today it moved sideways in a corrective way through the %62 Fib level area, which suggests that it is still running through the Wave (c) correction and could still drop lower towards the %76Fib level at the lower trend line (blue).
The %76Fib level would bring the price back towards the blue long-term trend line (best shown on the Daily and 4Hour Charts) (1.0968 area).
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
EURGBP
EURGBP completed Wave ii correction between the %62 and the %76 Fib level.
And now created the turning point for Wave iii of Wave (iii) down.
The initial drop down is very impulsive and so far creating 4 internal waves of Wave 1(blue) of the larger Wave iii.
It is currently going through the 5th internal wave of Wave1 (blue), which should cross the current support area at 0.8528.
Once Wave 1 is completed, Wave 2 should follow a 3 waves correction to the upside.
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
Weekly
GBPUSD
GBPUSD yesterday seemed to have shown completion of Wave 4 (blue) correction (of Wave iii) as it hit resistance level at 1.3140 and dropped lower for the start of Wave 5 downwards.
However, Wave 4(blue) developed a raise which should now complete 3 waves flat correction.
The price should not raise further than 1.3150 for this count to remain valid otherwise would trigger the alternative count for an extended Wave ii.
Next, Wave 5 should start anytime now and carry the price across support levels where Wave (iii) should be completed.
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
AUDUSD
Daily & 4Hour Charts:
AUDUSD 4Hour Chart is showing the price raising from the neckline of a clear Head & Shoulders pattern which is suggesting Wave (iii) could be finally making its way up.
Still not out of the woods yet, so further moves lower than this neckline would trigger the alternative count for an extended Wave [ii] going towards the %76 levels of support, although it is still possible an extended Wave [v] or even a further extended Wave 5, with not much resistance levels to stop the move down (best seen in the 4Hour and Daily charts) .
Hourly Chart:
The drop today made me reconsider the hourly chart for a less awkward looking count, but still difficult to read.
As it stands the current count shows a Wave ii possibly completed at nearly %76 Fib retracement of Wave i.
For this count to remain valid Wave iii should develop 5 waves up crossing the highest of Wave i at 0.7167.
Further moves lower than the 0 retracement of Wave i would invalidate the current count and go in favour of the alternate counts (best shown in the 4Hour and Daily Charts).
60Mins
4Hours
Daily
Weekly
All the best for everyone.
Andres
Trading Waves .org
