Fri 20-08-2021
Hi everyone, hope you are all great.
So... Let's get into it...
USDJPY
Weekly Chart is showing Wave (1) could be completed now that the price has crossed the upper long-term trendline...
A rise from the lower trend line, after the this long-term correction, under the current count,
suggests the beginning of the start of Wave (1) of a long-term raise.
(Price re-entering the long-term Range and subsequent drop across the %50 retracement would favor Alternate #1 count for an extended Wave (C) of Wave [B] correction towards the %62)
Daily Chart is been showing Wave (1) should be completed as the price has now crossed the EMAs impulsively after nearly a year... let's see the price reaction to the long-term Trendline (blue)...
At first glance Wave (2) has already hit the %38 retracement of Wave (1)... so could be completed, as the Alternate count suggests (circled))...
The preferred count indicates that the move could be just its internal Waves A(red) and B(red) completed...
Next, Wave C(red) should move towards the 200EMA and possibly %50 or %62 retracement areas...
4Hour Chart is showing Wave B(red) completed (i.e. breaking out of the Horizontal Range(blue) to the downside) to initiate Wave C(red)... however, the price went quickly back into the Range(blue) which I marked as extended Waves (i) & (ii) of WaveC(red)...
(Wave (iii) would be confirmed on the Range(blue) full breakout to the downside and crossing of the lowest of Wave (i) @108.716...)
60Min Chart shows a close up of the latest impulsive price-drop hinting the potential of 5 waves just completing Wave (i) of Wave (iii) of Wave C (red), as mentioned in the H4 analysis...
The current count is now on Wave (ii) at just above %62 retracement... after previous count invalidation.
Although Wave (ii) could get extended, as the Alternate count suggest (circled)...
EURUSD
Weekly Chart is showing an extended Wave C(red) of Wave (C) of Wave [B] now most likely completed...
And showing signs of the price reverting into a down Trend as it headed down impulsively towards the EMAs,
and it has bounced at them causing a sharp corrective Wave [ii], as the current count suggests...
Notice the Alternate #2 for more extensive correction of long-term Wave [B] to have in mind...
However, price is at the verge of confirming Wave [iii] as it is close to crossing the lowest of Wave [i]...
Daily Chart is showing Wave C(red) most likely completed at the top trendline of the Trend Channel(yellow).
Since then the price has temporally crossed the 200EMA and lower Trendline for the potential of a new long-term Trend to the downside...
as Wave [i] and Wave [ii] are looking completed...
(Wave [ii] at the %85 retracement of Wave [i]...)
Wave [iii] seem to have made a strong initial impulsive move... and would be confirmed if the price crosses the lowest point of Wave [i] @1.17071...
4Hour Chart is showing the price breakout of the Ascending Range (blue) and EMAs to the downside suggests the internal waves of Wave [iii]...
(Wave [iii] would be confirmed once the price breaks below the lowest of Wave [i] @ 1.17071)
60Min Chart is showing the price completed corrective Wave iv
...as since then there seems to be 5 waves developing which should be the internal Waves (at some degree) of Wave v...
GBPUSD
Weekly chart shows an extended Wave (4) correction crossing the EMAs in a rather struggling way...
At the current resistance points the price could start coming down lower to start Wave (5), as per current count
or continue higher as Alternate #1 suggests...
Regardless of the direction, the moves still look very weak and corrective...
(Note Alternate #1 for a possible larger Wave (4) developing...).
Daily Chart is showing the Wave C(red) completing Wave (4) in what should then be a false breakout
of this long term triangle formation (blue long-term trendline).
If this is a false breakout the moves could start bringing the price down impulsively and re-entering the blue long-term trendline.
Next, if this count is correct, we should expect the price to continue the moves down impulsively for Wave (5)...
but, the price got as close as it gets to the 0 retracement and any further than the 0 would have invalidated the current count...
so for the current count to work the price still needs to complete the breakout of the new Ascending Range formation (yellow) and cross the EMAs to the downside...
4Hour Chart shows the price falled below the EMAs for the potential start of Wave iii to the downside...
breaking current Market Structures (i.e blue Ascending Range and yellow trendline) and EMAs to the downside in an impulsive way in a series of 5-waves... that, so far, seem to have completed Wave 1(blue) of Wave iii...
And, in the last sessions, the price went back up for corrective Wave 2(blue)... which has already reached the %62 retracement...
60Min Chart is showing the price moving within a Range, as corrective Wave 2(blue) reached the %62 retracement...
So watch out for Wave 3(blue) continuation to the downside and the potential Range's breakout...
All the best for everyone and please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or comments.
Andres
info@tradingwaves.org
Please be aware: that these Analysis are own opinions, not Trading advice; Trading carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.