TradingWaves | Elliot Waves Analysis | Price

Chart Analysis

Fri 21-05-2021



Hi everyone, hope you are all great.

So... Let's get into it...


USDJPY


Weekly Chart is showing Wave (1) could be completed now that the price has crossed the upper long-term trendline...

A rise from the lower trend line, after the this long-term correction, under the current count,
suggests the beginning of the start of Wave (1) of a long-term raise.

(a drop across the %50 retracement would favor Alternate #1 count for an extended Wave (C) of Wave [B] correction towards the %62)





Daily Chart is been showing Wave (1) should be completed as the price has now crossed the EMAs impulsively after nearly a year... let's see the price reaction to the long-term Trendline (blue)...

At first glance Wave (2) has already hit the %38 retracement of Wave (1)... so could be completed, as the Alternate count suggests...

Although I have marked that as the Alternative count, the preferred count indicates that the move could be just its internal Waves A(red) completed and B(red) nearly completed...

After Wave B(red) confirms to be completed, Wave C(red) should move towards the 200EMA and possibly %50 or %62 retracement areas...




4Hour Chart is showing the corrective Wave (2) completing its internal Wave A(red) below all EMAs (with 5 waves)...
suggesting a Zig-Zag pattern ahead (5-3-5)...

With Wave B(red) also nearly completed within a Horizontal Range... Wave C(red) should be soon developing in the form of 5 waves down, after the breakout of the current Range and EMAs...




60Min Chart shows a close up of the mentioned Wave B(red) of Wave (2) possibly completed, although could go to the top Trendline of the current Ascending Range again before the breakout from the bottom Trendline to continue with Wave C(red)...
...with the potential of 5 waves for Wave C (red),  as mentioned in the H4 analysis...







EURUSD



Weekly Chart is showing an extended Wave C(red) of Wave (C) of Wave [B] now most likely completed...

And showing signs of the price reverting into a down Trend as it heads down towards the EMAs,
although it has bounced at them causing corrective Wave [ii], as the current count suggests...

Notice the Alternate #2 for more extensive correction of long-term Wave [B] to have in mind...





Daily Chart is showing Wave C(red) most likely completed at the top trendline of the Trend Channel(yellow).

And now the price as it temporally crossed the 200EMA and lower Trendline for the potential of a new long-term Trend to the downside...
as Wave [i] seems to be completed...

So Wave [ii] underway, but be aware of the price re-entering the Trendline (yellow)...

(Wave [iii] would be confirmed if the price crosses the lowest point of Wave [i] @1.17071...)




4Hour Chart is showing Waves (a) and (b) of Wave [ii] now likely completed...

and the latest high could be the completion of Wave (c) of Wave [ii], as it hit the %85 retracement of Wave [i]...

...the price re-entered again the Ascending Range (blue), but be aware as it is still above the EMAs...

(Wave [iii] would be confirmed once the price breaks below the lowest of Wave [i] @ 1.17071)




60Min Chart is showing an impulsive rise as the price re-entered the Ascending Range (blue)...

...where Wave (c) of Wave [ii] found the Range's upper Trendlilne... and the %85 retracement area...

...since then there has been impulsive moves to the downside, hinting direccion towards the lower Trendline







GBPUSD


Weekly chart shows an extended Wave (4) correction crossing the EMAs in a rather struggling way...

At the current resistance points the price could start coming down lower to start Wave (5)
or continue higher as Alternate #1 suggests...

Regardless of the direction, the moves still look very weak and corrective...

(Note Alternate #1 for a possible larger Wave (4) developing...).





Daily Chart is showing the Wave C(red) completing Wave (4) in what should then be a false breakout 
of this long term triangle formation (blue long-term trendline).

If this is a false breakout the moves could start bringing the price down impulsively and re-entering the blue long-term trendline.

Next, if this count is correct, we should expect the price to continue the moves down impulsively for Wave (5)...

but, for that, the price still needs to complete the breakout of the new Ascending Range formation (blue) and cross the EMAs... 




4Hour Chart shows Wave (4) correction completed as it remains the highest point since February...
And the price has formed a Descending Range(yellow) which broke-out to the upside and few pips away from cancelling the current count,
as it nearly hit the 0 retracement of the hypothetical Wave i...

Next, I would wait for the price to confirm the start of Wave (5), before committing to short positions.
(i.e. breaking current Market Structures (i.e blue Ascending Range and yellow trendline) and EMAs to the downside in an impulsive way)...




60Min Chart is showing the latest raise could be Wave (v)... completing Wave C(blue) of Wave ii...

But the price is now within a new Ascending Range(blue) and above EMAs... so let's see the reaction to its Trendlines...






All the best for everyone and please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or comments.

Andres

info@tradingwaves.org



Please be aware: that these Analysis are own opinions, not Trading advice; Trading carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.