Fri 07-05-2021
Hi everyone, hope you are all great.
So... Let's get into it...
USDJPY
Weekly Chart is showing Wave (1) could be completed now that the price has crossed the upper long-term trendline...
A rise from the lower trend line, after the this long-term correction, under the current count,
suggests the beginning of the start of Wave (1) of a long-term raise.
(a drop across the %50 retracement would favor Alternate #1 count for an extended Wave (C) of Wave [B] correction towards the %62)
Daily Chart is been showing Wave (1) should be completed as the price has now crossed the EMAs impulsively after nearly a year... let's see the price reaction to the long-term Trendline (blue)...
At first glance Wave (2) has already hit the %38 retracement of Wave (1)... so could be completed...
Although I have marked that as the Alternative count, as it seems that the move could be just its internal Waves A(red) and B(red) completed...
And now Wave C(red) underway towards the 200EMA and possibly %50 or %62 retracement areas...
4Hour Chart is showing the corrective Wave (2) completing its internal Wave A(red) below all EMAs (with 5 waves)...
suggesting a Zig-Zag pattern ahead (5-3-5)...
With Wave B(red) also likely completed... Wave C(red) should be now developing in the form of 5 waves down, after the breakout of the latest Ascending Range and EMAs...
60Min Chart shows a close up of the mentioned Wave Wave B(red) of Wave (2) most likely completed...
And the breakout of the Ascending Range to the downside for the potential start of 5 waves for Wave C (red)...
EURUSD
Weekly Chart is showing an extended Wave C(red) of Wave (C) of Wave [B] now most likely completed...
And showing signs of the price reverting into a down Trend as it heads down towards the EMAs...
Notice the Alternate #2 for more extensive correction of long-term Wave [B] to have in mind...
Daily Chart is showing Wave C(red) most likely completed at the top trendline of the Trend Channel(yellow).
And now the price as it is crossing the 200EMA and lower Trendline for the potential of a new long-term Trend to the downside...
Especially now that Wave [i] seems to be completed...
So Wave [ii] underway, but be aware of the price re-entering the Trendline (yellow)...
4Hour Chart is showing Waves (a) and (b) of Wave [ii] now likely completed...
...as the price has nearly reached the %76 retracement of Wave [i] and possibly
heading towards the %85 within the current Range (yellow)...
(Wave [iii] would be confirm once the price breaks below the lowest of Wave [i] @ 1.17071)
60Min Chart is showing an impulsive rise as the price re-entered the Ascending Range...
So watch out for the potential of current Wave (c) of Wave [ii] to hit the upper Trendlilne of the current Range... towards the %76 or %85 retracement areas...
GBPUSD
Weekly chart shows an extended Wave (4) correction crossing the EMAs in a rather struggling way...
At the current resistance points the price could start coming down lower to start Wave (5)
or continue higher as Alternate #1 suggests...
Regardless of the direction, the moves still look very weak and corrective...
(Note Alternate #1 for a possible larger Wave (4) developing...).
Daily Chart is showing the Wave C(red) completing Wave (4) in what should then be a false breakout
of this long term triangle formation (blue long-term trendline).
If this is a false breakout the moves could start bringing the price down impulsively and re-entering the blue long-term trendline.
Next, if this count is correct, we should expect the price to continue the moves down impulsively for Wave (5)...
but, for that, the price still needs to complete the breakout of the current tight Ascending Range formation (yellow) and cross the EMAs...
4Hour Chart shows Wave (4) correction completed as it remains the highest point since February...
And the price has already breaking through the Blue Range to the downside... forming a Descending Range(yellow)...
Next, I would wait for the price to confirm the start of Wave (5), before committing to short positions.
(i.e. breaking current Market Structure (yellow trendline) and EMAs to the downside in an impulsive way)...
60Min Chart is showing the internal Wave (iv) could have been in play until the latest raise...
This latest raise should then be Wave (v)... completing Wave C(blue) of Wave ii...
All the best for everyone and please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or comments.
Andres
info@tradingwaves.org
Please be aware: that these Analysis are own opinions, not Trading advice; Trading carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.