Fri 19-02-2021
Hi everyone, hope you are all great.
So... Let's get into it...
USDJPY
Weekly Chart is showing Wave (E) could have been completed if the price re-enters
the lower triangle trendline, to complete this long term choppy correction...
A rise from the lower trend line, after the this long-term correction, under the current count,
would suggest the beginning of the start of Wave (1) of a long-term raise.
(a drop across the %50 retracement would favor Alternate #1 count for an extended Wave (C) correction towards the %62)
Daily Chart is been showing the current Wave (E) could have found the bottom as the price is crossing the 200EMA after a long time... let's see if this impulsive raise continues across the 200EMA...
Act with caution; ... but these could be early signs of a new trend up starting...
4Hour Chart is showing the potential completion for the initial Wave 1(blue) and its corrective Wave 2(blue)...
of Wave iii of the new trend up... but that count seems to be less probable now and has been marked as the Alternate count...
(will go into the reasons why below)
Previous alternate count for a Wave iii and corrective for Wave iv has now been made the main count instead... because the raise for Wave v matches exactly the length of its Wave i and Wave iii still the longest Wave...
So these 5 waves could have completed now Wave (i)... which leaves potential for Wave (ii) to bring the price down in a corrective manner...
60Min Chart shows the potential for this new Trend up... with 5 Waves completing Wave (i) within an Ascending Range...
The Alternate count (marked with question marks) now suggest the first 5 potential internal Waves of Wave 1 (blue) and its corrective Wave 2(blue) completed and Wave 3(blue) underway...
Main count leaves the case for a correction to bring the price lower in 3 waves...
Alternate count which calls for the current correction to find its bottom at the lower Trendline (blue)...
EURUSD
Weekly Chart is showing an extended Wave C(red) now most likely at completion of its internal Wave [v].
Notice the Alternate #2 for more extensive correction of long-term Wave [B] to have in mind.
Daily Chart is showing Wave C(red) completed with Wave [v] most likely completed at the top trendline of the Trend Channel(yellow).
So watch for the price to head towards the 200EMA and lower Trendline for the potential of a new long-term Trend to the downside...
4Hour Chart is showing... after renumbering due to previous short term count been invalidated... a larger Wave (i) completed and Wave (ii) developing... while creating a Head & Shoulders Formation....
60Min Chart is showing how the price formed 5 internal waves to complete Wave v of Wave (i)...
And now, under the current new count, Wave (ii) is under development...
GBPUSD
Weekly chart shows an extended Wave (4) correction crossing the 200EMA in a rather struggling but consistent way...
At the current resistance points the price could start coming down lower to start Wave (5)
or continue higher as Alternate #1 suggests...
Regardless of the direction, the moves look rather weak than impulsive...
(Note Alternate #1 for a possible larger Wave (4) developing across the 200EMA).
Daily Chart is showing the Wave C(red) completing Wave (4) in what should then be a false breakout
of this long term triangle formation (blue long-term trendline).
If this is a false breakout the moves could start bringing the price down impulsively if it re-enters the blue long-term trendline.
Next, if this count is correct, we should expect the price to continue the moves down impulsively for Wave (5)...
But the price still needs to breakout of the current tight Ascending Range formation (yellow) and cross the EMAs...
4Hour Chart shows Wave (4) correction extended and forming an ending diagonal on the last Wave 5(blue) within the current Range formation(blue)...
Next, I would wait for the price to confirm the start of Wave (5), before committing to short positions.
(i.e. breaking current Market Structure (blue trendline) to the downside)
60Min Chart is showing the price moving rather upwards and sideways within the current Ascending Triangle formation...
Watch for a breakout of the 200EMA to the downside, which could lead to further moves downwards, as per current count...
All the best for everyone and please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or comments.
Andres
info@tradingwaves.org
Please be aware: that these Analysis are own opinions, not Trading advice; Trading carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.